By Pranav Gupta (St. Stephen's College)
About
3 years ago, when Raj Babbar of the INC defeated Dimple Yadav, wife of
Akhilesh Yadav in a bye election in the family bastion of Firozabad, the
Samajwadi Party had seen its lowest point in Uttar Pradesh. Buoyed by the
recent victory and a magnificent performance in the Lok Sabha Elections in the
state, the Congress was dreaming of a victory in 2012.
The
SP's future seemed bleak as UP was tuning into a bi-polar contest between the
BSP and the INC. At this time, hardly anyone gave the SP a realistic
chance as people laughed off Akhilesh Yadav's claims of 2012 being a direct
contest between him and his bete noire Rahul Gandhi (People will still laugh at
that claim today but for an entirely different reason!).
Thus,
started the journey towards the socialist resurgence in UP. Borrowing Mrs.
Renuka Chaudhary's words from a TV show last night, they have emerged
like a phoenix from the ashes. The SP's landslide victory will have major
consequences on national politics.While Mayawati's loss can be attributed only to her decisions and policies, SP's win in such a scenario was caused by numerous exogenous and endogenous factors.
The emergence of a new Samajwadi
When Mulayam Singh Yadav appointed Akhilesh as the State President, it seemed to be a decision made to keep the dynasty going as opposed to improving the party's prospects. The party introspected and realized that while the glitz and glamour of bollywood seemed to be very charming, they could never fit in with Lohia. Over the years, Amar Singh had become the face of the party and had completely changed the party. From a party struggling to gather funds for elections, SP had the country's biggest businessmen as its face. When it came to star campaigners, even national parties could not match up to the Samajwadi Party with Amitabh Bacchan, Aishwarya Rai, Jaya Bacchan, Sanjay Dutt, Jayapradha campaigning for the party. With all this came dirty allegations of horsetrading and corruption, the same Amar Singh who had made the party a national party had now become a liability for the party. Promises of banning English and Computers and being seen as agents of rich industrialists did not go down well with the public. (The party's Lok Sabha tally reduced to 22). It was very clear; the party had to decide which path to follow. The father-son duo made a tough decision of throwing out Amar Singh.
When Mulayam Singh Yadav appointed Akhilesh as the State President, it seemed to be a decision made to keep the dynasty going as opposed to improving the party's prospects. The party introspected and realized that while the glitz and glamour of bollywood seemed to be very charming, they could never fit in with Lohia. Over the years, Amar Singh had become the face of the party and had completely changed the party. From a party struggling to gather funds for elections, SP had the country's biggest businessmen as its face. When it came to star campaigners, even national parties could not match up to the Samajwadi Party with Amitabh Bacchan, Aishwarya Rai, Jaya Bacchan, Sanjay Dutt, Jayapradha campaigning for the party. With all this came dirty allegations of horsetrading and corruption, the same Amar Singh who had made the party a national party had now become a liability for the party. Promises of banning English and Computers and being seen as agents of rich industrialists did not go down well with the public. (The party's Lok Sabha tally reduced to 22). It was very clear; the party had to decide which path to follow. The father-son duo made a tough decision of throwing out Amar Singh.
The
party's traditional voters, the Muslims were moving away from the party. In a
bid to gather the Lodhi and OBC vote, the party had brought Kalyan Singh. A
move that completely back fired as the Muslim community went away from the
party. Party leaders publicly apologized for this move and brought back
Azam Khan to win back Muslim voters. Another important development that
helped the party was the implicit acceptance of the 'Gunda Raj' by Akhilesh Yadav. Maintenance of law and
order is necessary for any party to come to power. The D.P. Yadav incident gave
a lot of positive publicity to the party and enhanced Akhilesh's image as a
leader against 'Gundayi'.
Personally I believe the party has been hypocritical in its approach towards
the Gunda Raj. Akhilesh talked about
a no-tolerance approach towards violation of law and order but his recent
statements on the violent acts in numerous post-victory celebrations seem
positive. What remains to be seen is whether the party is able to remove the
goons and criminals at the cadre level?
The party also brought about a major change in its approach towards computers and English. Akhilesh knew that this change would appeal to the youth of Uttar Pradesh. The difficulty was to convince his father about the viability of giving free laptops and tablets to students. While the viability of such freebies and the implementation of such policies remain questionable, what we need to focus on is that this is a major change in the party's ideology. The party recognized the need to appeal to young voters A recent survey by CSDS shows how youth candidates and youth leaders appeal to young voters. For the young voters of UP the choice was between Rahul Gandhi - For whom UP is a path to 7, RCR and Akhilesh Yadav - For whom UP will be the Karmabhoomi.
Consolidating the Anti Incumbency vote
Mayawati in a press conference on Wednesday attributed her poll loss to communal polarization of votes caused by statements made by BJP and congress leaders. While it will be wrong to deny the presence of an anti incumbency wave due to heavy corruption during her reign, it will also be wrong to completely rebuff her argument.
Mayawati's decisions of expelling numerous ministers and dropping sitting MLA's probably led to wide scale resentment among the party cadre. Mayawati it seems did not realize that her umbrella coalition of Upper castes and SC's had failed in 2012. The party held on to its upper caste votes but lost out its core votes - The Jatavs and other dalits. The biggest problem for the BSP was its performance in the reserved constituencies which are the real test of an umbrella social coalition as all parties put up Dalit candidates which leads to a division of the dalit vote. The SP managed to win 54 of the 84 reserved constituencies of the state. In 2007, the BSP had won 62 of these constituencies. Only 57% Jatavs voted for the party as compared to a massive 84% in 2007.
The Muslim Reservation promise of the Congress led to a lot of controversy during this election. Contrary to popular perception the policy did not lead to any major gains for the Congress. This election saw the return of Muslim to the SP. In 2007, the SP got 46% of the votes which dropped to an all time low of 30% in 2009. This figure rose to 49% in 2012, a major reason for this landslide victory. While Mayawati's explanation on the consolidation of Muslim votes can’t be taken as the sole reason for her loss, it can definitely be taken as an important factor for the Congress's problems. The return of Muslims can be attributed to many factors and not solely on the SP's promise of 18% reservation, something that would be very difficult for the party to implement.
The OBC backlash that many people were predicting did not happen. The BJP had brought in Babu Singh Kushwaha and Uma Bharti, the party's OBC faces in order to attract the OBC voters. The party heavily criticized the reservation policy, hoping for some support from the OBC.
While Uma Bharti's campaigning helped the party win 3 seats in Bundelkhand, the party lost out Ayodhya and could win only one seat in party bastion Lucknow. Infighting, factionalism, negative publicity due to the Kushwaha saga and inability to project a leader can be considered as major reasons for the party's failure in the state.
The Congress lost votes among all groups as compared to the 2009 elections and got almost as much support as they got in 2007. The party's gains among Kurmi voters can be explained as a general improvement for the party from 2007 as opposed to some specific impact of Kurmi leader Beni Prasad Verma as the party fared poorly in all assembly segments in his Gonda Lok Sabha constituency. The Congress didnt do anything very different from what it did in 2009 in fact it was better prepared. It had the same organizational structure or probably a worse one in 2009. What explains this is probably an increasing trend of voting differently in Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. As compared to high profile candidates like Sonia Gandhi, Salman Khurshid, Rahul Gandhi, Beni Prasad Verma, P.L. Punia, Sriprakash Jaiswal, Mohd. Azzarudhin, Raj Babbar to name a few, the only people that the congress offered in 2012 were rebels from all parties.
The lower margin of victories can be attributed to delimitation and a four way battle or a five way in almost all segments. The 2012 result also shows a possible shift towards bipolarity in Uttar Pradesh with huge seat swings between the major parties.
The results will have a major impact on national politics with calls for midterm polls already growing.
The party also brought about a major change in its approach towards computers and English. Akhilesh knew that this change would appeal to the youth of Uttar Pradesh. The difficulty was to convince his father about the viability of giving free laptops and tablets to students. While the viability of such freebies and the implementation of such policies remain questionable, what we need to focus on is that this is a major change in the party's ideology. The party recognized the need to appeal to young voters A recent survey by CSDS shows how youth candidates and youth leaders appeal to young voters. For the young voters of UP the choice was between Rahul Gandhi - For whom UP is a path to 7, RCR and Akhilesh Yadav - For whom UP will be the Karmabhoomi.
Consolidating the Anti Incumbency vote
Mayawati in a press conference on Wednesday attributed her poll loss to communal polarization of votes caused by statements made by BJP and congress leaders. While it will be wrong to deny the presence of an anti incumbency wave due to heavy corruption during her reign, it will also be wrong to completely rebuff her argument.
Mayawati's decisions of expelling numerous ministers and dropping sitting MLA's probably led to wide scale resentment among the party cadre. Mayawati it seems did not realize that her umbrella coalition of Upper castes and SC's had failed in 2012. The party held on to its upper caste votes but lost out its core votes - The Jatavs and other dalits. The biggest problem for the BSP was its performance in the reserved constituencies which are the real test of an umbrella social coalition as all parties put up Dalit candidates which leads to a division of the dalit vote. The SP managed to win 54 of the 84 reserved constituencies of the state. In 2007, the BSP had won 62 of these constituencies. Only 57% Jatavs voted for the party as compared to a massive 84% in 2007.
The Muslim Reservation promise of the Congress led to a lot of controversy during this election. Contrary to popular perception the policy did not lead to any major gains for the Congress. This election saw the return of Muslim to the SP. In 2007, the SP got 46% of the votes which dropped to an all time low of 30% in 2009. This figure rose to 49% in 2012, a major reason for this landslide victory. While Mayawati's explanation on the consolidation of Muslim votes can’t be taken as the sole reason for her loss, it can definitely be taken as an important factor for the Congress's problems. The return of Muslims can be attributed to many factors and not solely on the SP's promise of 18% reservation, something that would be very difficult for the party to implement.
The OBC backlash that many people were predicting did not happen. The BJP had brought in Babu Singh Kushwaha and Uma Bharti, the party's OBC faces in order to attract the OBC voters. The party heavily criticized the reservation policy, hoping for some support from the OBC.
While Uma Bharti's campaigning helped the party win 3 seats in Bundelkhand, the party lost out Ayodhya and could win only one seat in party bastion Lucknow. Infighting, factionalism, negative publicity due to the Kushwaha saga and inability to project a leader can be considered as major reasons for the party's failure in the state.
The Congress lost votes among all groups as compared to the 2009 elections and got almost as much support as they got in 2007. The party's gains among Kurmi voters can be explained as a general improvement for the party from 2007 as opposed to some specific impact of Kurmi leader Beni Prasad Verma as the party fared poorly in all assembly segments in his Gonda Lok Sabha constituency. The Congress didnt do anything very different from what it did in 2009 in fact it was better prepared. It had the same organizational structure or probably a worse one in 2009. What explains this is probably an increasing trend of voting differently in Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. As compared to high profile candidates like Sonia Gandhi, Salman Khurshid, Rahul Gandhi, Beni Prasad Verma, P.L. Punia, Sriprakash Jaiswal, Mohd. Azzarudhin, Raj Babbar to name a few, the only people that the congress offered in 2012 were rebels from all parties.
The lower margin of victories can be attributed to delimitation and a four way battle or a five way in almost all segments. The 2012 result also shows a possible shift towards bipolarity in Uttar Pradesh with huge seat swings between the major parties.
The results will have a major impact on national politics with calls for midterm polls already growing.
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